| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest recorded in New York City on March 12, 2026; it matters because it aggregates trader expectations about a one-day weather outcome that affects energy demand, transportation, and event planning. Active trading provides a live lens on how forecasts and observations are shifting ahead of that date.
March in New York is a transitional month when synoptic patterns can produce anything from late-winter chill to early-spring warmth, so single-day highs can vary widely from one year to the next. Long-term warming trends have shifted the distribution of seasonal temperatures, but day-to-day outcomes still depend primarily on immediate weather systems and local factors like urban heat and snow cover. This market captures how forecasters and participants price those competing influences for a specific calendar day.
Market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of traders and update as new model runs, observations, and reports arrive; treat prices as a dynamic signal of consensus rather than a fixed measurement. For final resolution, consult the market rules to see which official observing source and time window will be used.
The market will resolve using the official observing station or dataset specified in the contract rules; organizers often cite a National Weather Service or NOAA station for a defined location (check the event page for the exact source).
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 through 23:59 local time) for the named location, but you should confirm the precise time window in the market's settlement rules because some contracts use specific synoptic-hour definitions.
Traders combine numerical model outputs (global and regional runs), ensemble spreads, short-term observations from local airport and urban stations, satellite and radar data, and private forecaster analyses to update expectations as the day approaches.
Traded volume is an indicator of participant interest and liquidity; higher volume generally means prices incorporate more information and it may be easier to enter or exit positions, but volume itself does not determine the settlement outcome.
Tie-breaking and station-selection procedures are specified in the market's settlement rules; resolution typically follows the contract's designated official source and any stated data-quality or verification procedures.