| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $122K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $100K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $96K | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $77K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several temperature outcomes will be the highest recorded temperature in New York City on March 10, 2026. It matters because near-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and short-term economic activity in the city.
March weather in NYC sits in the transition from winter to spring, so day-to-day temperatures can swing widely depending on the timing of fronts and air-mass placement. Recent years have seen both unseasonably warm and late-cold spells in early March, and longer-term warming trends have changed the baseline around which these swings occur.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will occur given current forecasts and uncertainty; they update as new observations and model runs arrive but should be treated as probabilistic, not definitive.
It measures the maximum air temperature on the contract's specified observation day as recorded by the settlement data source named in the contract; check the event page for the exact station and measurement definition used for settlement.
The contract specifies an official data source (typically an NWS/NOAA or other recognized climate observation site for New York City); consult the event page or contract details to see the exact station and provider that will be used for settlement.
‘On Mar 10’ refers to the calendar day as defined by the settlement source and contract (usually local time for the specified station); the event page includes the precise start and end times used for the daily observation period.
Settlement usually occurs after the official daily observation is published and any prescribed quality-control checks are completed; the contract notes the expected settlement timeline, which can range from hours to a few days depending on the data provider's release practices.
Model runs, ensemble spread, and recent surface observations drive traders' expectations and can cause rapid price changes—early runs set a baseline, while later high-resolution and ensemble forecasts often have outsized influence within 48 hours of the date.