| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in New York City on April 6, 2026. It provides a localized way for participants to speculate on long-range spring weather patterns in a major urban center.
April in New York City is a transitional period characterized by significant meteorological volatility as winter yields to spring. Historical data shows that daily highs during this month can range drastically, influenced by oscillating polar jet streams and coastal proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. This market aggregates information to forecast temperature bands well in advance of the calendar date.
Market participants adjust their positions based on long-range climate models, historical temperature averages, and anomalous weather trends observed leading up to the date.
The market relies on data from the official National Weather Service reporting station located in Central Park, New York City.
The market settles based on the official recorded high temperature provided by the designated weather authority, regardless of the severity of the weather conditions.
This market specifically tracks the daily maximum temperature recorded at any point during the 24-hour period of April 6, 2026, rather than the daily mean.
While microclimates exist, the market uses the standardized Central Park official reading, which serves as the authoritative benchmark for NYC weather reporting.
Long-range seasonal forecasts offer probabilistic trends, but specific daily high temperatures remain highly unpredictable until closer to the date as short-term weather models become available.