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Climate and Weather OPEN

Highest temperature in NYC on Apr 3, 2026?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
$0
Open Interest
0
Active Markets
6
Markets
6

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Yes Ask
Last Price
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Buy YES → Buy NO

Prices in cents (1¢ = 1%). Trade on Kalshi.

All Outcomes (6)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
64° or below 0%
$0 Trade →
65° to 66° 0%
$0 Trade →
67° to 68° 0%
$0 Trade →
69° to 70° 0%
$0 Trade →
71° to 72° 0%
$0 Trade →
73° or above 0%
$0 Trade →

About This Market

This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in New York City on April 3, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against or speculating on climate patterns and spring weather volatility in the region.

April in New York City is a transitional month characterized by significant variability as the region shifts from winter to spring. Historical data shows that daily highs during this period are heavily influenced by the movement of cold fronts from the north and warm air masses arriving from the south, leading to frequent temperature swings.

The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of meteorological conditions for that specific date, representing the market's assessment of how likely each temperature bracket is to be reached.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

What official data source determines the winner for this market?

The market relies on official data from the National Weather Service (NWS) as recorded at the designated Central Park observation station.

What happens if there is extreme weather that closes the monitoring station?

In the event of official station data unavailability, the contract will rely on designated secondary official meteorological reports or fallback procedures defined by the exchange.

How does the 'Highest temperature' differ from the 'Average temperature'?

The highest temperature refers strictly to the peak daily value recorded by the thermometer, whereas the average temperature is a mean calculated across the 24-hour period.

Does this market account for wind chill or 'feels like' temperatures?

No, this market tracks only the dry-bulb air temperature as officially reported, excluding adjustments for wind chill or humidity.

How does historical variance affect this prediction?

April weather in New York is notoriously volatile, meaning that historical trends provide a baseline, but the specific outcome is subject to high-variance short-term atmospheric patterns.

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