| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded at Central Park, New York City, on April 2, 2026. It serves as a financial derivative for weather volatility and localized climate events.
April in New York City is a transitional month characterized by significant variability as the region shifts from winter conditions to spring. Historical data from the National Weather Service provides the baseline for seasonal averages, though extreme weather patterns can cause daily highs to deviate substantially from the norm.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding future weather outcomes based on meteorological forecasts and climatological trends.
The official daily maximum temperature recorded at the Central Park weather station, as reported by the National Weather Service, will be the final authority.
Central Park acts as a microclimate; temperatures there are often cooler than surrounding concrete-dense areas but remain the standard benchmark for NYC weather reporting.
Yes, large-scale systems moving across the Northeast corridor can rapidly alter local temperature maximums on the day of the event.
Standard prediction market protocols for this contract rely on data as reported by official government agencies; in the event of missing data, secondary reliable weather sources are typically utilized.
April in NYC is marked by 'swing' weather, where rapid shifts between maritime air masses and continental cold fronts can cause temperature fluctuations of 20 degrees or more within 24 hours.