| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $820 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 9, 2026. Outcomes can inform short-term weather risk decisions for events, energy load planning, and local operations.
Early March in New Orleans is a transitional period when temperature swings are driven by Gulf moisture, frontal passages, and the position of the jet stream. Historical values for a single calendar date can vary widely year to year, so near-term model guidance and synoptic evolution are the main drivers in the days before the target date.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed given current forecasts and incoming data; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real-time consensus indicator and consult the contract's resolution rules for how the official measurement is defined.
The stated close time on the event page is TBD; check the KALSHI market page for the official close. Final outcome settlement follows the platform's published resolution timeline after the official observation is available.
The contract resolves to the highest reported air temperature from the specific observing station and data source named in the contract rules (typically an official NWS station or an explicitly listed sensor). See the market's resolution notes for the exact source.
Resolution generally uses the highest recorded temperature during the local calendar date specified (commonly 00:00–23:59 local time) using the official, quality-controlled reading; the contract notes specify the exact time window and rounding conventions.
Yes. If the official data are revised after the initial report, the market follows KALSHI's published dispute and revision policy when settling, so final settlement may use corrected, quality-controlled data per the contract rules.
New forecast model runs indicating a frontal timing change, updated surface observations, shifts in expected cloud cover or precipitation, changes in Gulf SST or low-level moisture analyses, and official NWS advisories are the main drivers of price movement.