| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 13% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 8, 2026; it matters for local energy demand, public health planning, and weather-sensitive operations. Traders incorporate real-time forecasts and climatology to form expectations about that day's peak temperature.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate where early March can range from cool to relatively warm depending on synoptic patterns; year-to-year variability and longer-term warming both affect the distribution of daily highs. Day-specific forecasts become much more reliable as the date approaches, while markets update as new model guidance and observations arrive.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time expectation of which temperature bin will be the daily maximum; they should be read as a consensus signal that changes with forecasts and new observations, not as a guarantee.
The market's close time is listed on the event page (TBD if not yet set); the winning outcome will be determined using the official temperature observation for March 8, 2026 as specified in the market rules.
Resolution will use the official daily maximum temperature reported by the National Weather Service or the specific station designated in the event's rules (check the event page for the named reporting station).
Model guidance and ensemble forecasts often begin to influence market expectations noticeably about one to two weeks out, with much stronger, day-specific signals emerging within a few days of the target date.
Long-term warming shifts the baseline distribution toward higher temperatures, so traders should combine climatology-adjusted expectations with short-term weather forecasts to assess the likelihood of warm extremes on that date.
The event rules specify which station or dataset resolves the market; if multiple stations are mentioned, the rules will state the tie-breaker procedure—consult the event's resolution criteria before trading.