| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will correspond to the highest official air temperature observed in New Orleans on March 7, 2026. It matters because it aggregates expectations about short-term weather conditions that are driven by large-scale patterns, local effects, and timing of fronts.
Early March in New Orleans sits in a transition season: temperatures can swing between unseasonably warm Gulf-influenced days and cooler conditions when cold fronts move through. The city’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, local sea-breeze effects, and urban heat island can all modulate the daily maximum, so outcomes reflect a mix of synoptic-scale and local influences. Prediction-market prices for this type of event move as models, observations, and forecasters update their views in the days before the target date.
Market odds reflect the collective, continuously updating view of traders about which temperature-range outcome is most likely; they are best used as a relative indicator of market expectations rather than a guarantee of a specific temperature.
The market will resolve to the highest official air temperature reported for the designated New Orleans observing station during the local calendar day; the event's resolution clause on the market page identifies the authoritative observing site and agency (for example, an NWS/NOAA station) that will be used.
Each of the six outcomes maps to a mutually exclusive temperature interval listed on the event page; those labeled intervals determine which outcome wins given the observed maximum—consult the event listing to see the exact temperature bins.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event header; the platform will post the official market close time and any trading freeze before resolution, so check the event page or platform notifications for the final close schedule.
Large-scale regime forecasts that determine whether a front or warm sector affects the city typically become useful several days in advance, while the most actionable details for exact daytime maximums generally appear in short-range guidance and observations within a couple of days of the target date.
Compare early-March climatology for New Orleans and recent March anomalies, and consider recent trends in Gulf sea-surface temperatures and seasonal patterns; that baseline helps you judge whether a given outcome would be typical, unusually warm, or unusually cool for the date.