| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 28% | 29¢ | 44¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 59% | 49¢ | 58¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 7% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $594 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in New Orleans on March 6, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because it summarizes collective expectations about a single-day extreme for a major city.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate with large day-to-day variability in late winter/early spring, so early-March highs can swing between cool and unusually warm depending on synoptic patterns. Short-term weather systems, Gulf moisture, and local effects drive the observed maximum on any given day, and historical records provide context but do not determine the outcome.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which temperature bin will contain the highest observed reading; interpret them as a snapshot of collective beliefs and information, not as an official forecast or measurement.
The market contract specifies the authoritative observation source and station (for example, a National Weather Service/NOAA station or a particular airport sensor); consult the contract text on the platform to see the named data source used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature bin defined on the market page; view the market’s outcome labels or contract details on the trading platform to see the precise temperature ranges for the six options.
A closing time will be set by the platform or market creator and announced before settlement; markets commonly close prior to the observation window or at a specified time tied to the official measurement — check platform notifications or the contract for the announced close.
The contract defines the authoritative source and any tie-breaking or rounding rules; settlement follows that specified procedure (for example, using the official NWS station reading or a named dataset), so review the contract language for details.
Use current numerical weather prediction guidance, short-range ensemble spread, recent observed trends, climatology for early March in New Orleans, and mesoscale forecasts (clouds, fronts, sea-breeze) — remember the market will settle to the single observed thermometer maximum documented by the contract.