| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86° or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 47% | 46¢ | 47¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 29% | 28¢ | 32¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $909 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $839 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature outcome will represent the highest observed air temperature in New Orleans on March 5, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on a specific short-term weather outcome. Weather-sensitive businesses and hedgers follow these markets to manage risk tied to temperature extremes.
Early March in New Orleans sits in a transitional season where either winter cold fronts or early spring warmth can set the day’s high, so daily outcomes can swing widely depending on synoptic timing. Interannual factors (for example large-scale atmospheric patterns and Gulf temperatures) influence the baseline, while day-to-day weather systems and cloud/precipitation cover determine the realized high. The market resolves against an official observing source and rule set specified on the event page.
Market prices represent the consensus view of traders about which temperature range will occur, and they update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use those prices as a summary of current beliefs, remembering they are not guarantees but market signals that can change up until resolution.
The market’s rule text and event description specify the official reporting station and source (for example an NWS station, airport ASOS/AWOS, or a specified weather network); check the event page for the exact station and measurement authority used for resolution.
Resolution timing is determined by the event’s official rules on the platform; typically, markets resolve after the end of the specified local date once the official daily maximum has been reported, but consult the event page for the exact closure and resolution window.
Each outcome corresponds to a pre-defined temperature range (and a specified unit, Fahrenheit or Celsius) listed on the market page; read the outcome labels and the market rules to see exact bin boundaries and unit conventions before trading.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model guidance (global and short-range), NWS forecasts and forecasts discussions, MOS/point forecasts for the official station, high-resolution convective-allowing models in the 0–48 hour range, and near-term surface observations to judge frontal timing and cloud/precipitation potential.
Clouds and rainfall suppress daytime heating by reducing solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling; if a front or rain band is present during the warmest part of the day, the observed daily maximum is likely to be lower than it would be under clear, southerly-wind conditions.