| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 4, 2026 will be. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather variability and for anyone tracking unusual late-winter warmth or cold in the Gulf Coast region.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate, so early March can swing between cool, damp conditions and unseasonably warm, dry spells depending on large-scale patterns. Historical variability around this date is influenced by mid-latitude storm tracks, Gulf moisture return, and occasional cold fronts. Short-term forecasts and synoptic-scale features in the days leading up to March 4 will substantially affect outcomes.
Market odds on this contract reflect collective expectations about which temperature bracket will be the daily maximum on March 4, 2026; they are not guarantees but real‑time summaries of traded views. Always consult the market’s settlement rules to understand exactly how the winning outcome is defined and which observational source will be used.
The market will settle to the official observation specified in the market’s settlement rules—check the KALSHI market description for the exact station (e.g., an NWS/NOAA station) and the observation method used to determine the daily maximum.
The six outcomes are discrete temperature bands defined on the market page; each outcome wins if the observed daily maximum falls within its band. Refer to the outcome labels on the contract for exact upper and lower bounds.
Trading close is shown on the market page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official observing agency publishes the daily max, which may be the same day or within a few days—consult the market timeline and settlement rules for precise timing.
March 4, 2026 falls before U.S. daylight saving time begins, so local clocks will be Central Standard Time (UTC−6). The market’s settlement rules will specify the local calendar day/time window used for the maximum—confirm that to align expectations.
The contract will specify the authoritative source and any tie‑breaking procedures; if multiple sources disagree, KALSHI follows the settlement protocol listed on the market page, so review those rules to see how discrepancies are handled.