| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 94¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest recorded temperature in New Orleans will be on March 3, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because daily temperature extremes drive energy, agriculture, and event planning risks. The outcome will be determined from an official weather observation as specified by the contract.
New Orleans' early March temperatures can vary widely depending on synoptic patterns, Gulf moisture, and frontal passages; historically the city sees a broad range of possible highs this time of year. This KALSHI market currently lists six mutually exclusive outcomes and has attracted trading activity, and the market's settlement details (station, measurement method, units, and rounding) are defined in the contract rules. The market close time is listed as TBD, so consult the market page for updates.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the single-day maximum temperature as defined by the contract; interpret them as a live aggregation of information rather than fixed predictions, and always confirm the official settlement rule for exact measurement details.
The contract's settlement rules specify the exact observation used—typically the official NWS/NOAA reporting station and the local calendar day (March 3) reporting period, plus the measurement units and any rounding conventions. Confirm those specifics on the KALSHI market page before trading.
Settlement will use the designated official station and dataset named in the contract (commonly an NWS/NOAA observation for the New Orleans metro area). The market page lists the authoritative source to be used for final settlement.
The market close time is currently listed as TBD; settlement occurs after the official data for March 3 are released by the designated reporting agency. Check the market page for any announcements about close or settlement timing.
This market’s six mutually exclusive outcomes cover distinct temperature ranges or specific temperature bins as defined on the contract page; consult the outcome list on KALSHI to see the exact boundaries and labels used for this event.
Watch operational weather model updates (GFS, ECMWF and high‑resolution ensembles), surface and upper‑air analyses, timing of frontal passages, Gulf sea‑surface temperatures, and the latest observations from local stations; also monitor NWS forecasts and any warnings that could indicate rapid changes in expected highs.