| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 29, 2026; it matters for traders, event planners, energy and outdoor-activity stakeholders who care about late-March temperature extremes.
New Orleans sits in a humid subtropical climate where late-March temperatures can swing from cool, post-frontal conditions to unseasonably warm days influenced by Gulf air masses. Synoptic-scale patterns (frontal timing, Gulf moisture, and large-scale teleconnections) and local effects (urban heat island, land/sea breezes) all shape the daily maximum. The market is hosted on KALSHI and uses a predefined observation source and settlement rules listed on the event page.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of which temperature outcome is most likely relative to the others and should be read as a comparative signal rather than a deterministic forecast. Expect odds to change as short-range weather models, observations, and synoptic features evolve approaching the event date.
The market's closing time is set by KALSHI and is shown on the event page; typically markets close before the official observation window ends, so check the event page for the exact close time and any last-trade cutoff.
There are six mutually exclusive outcomes defined by the event creator—usually temperature bins or thresholded categories; the event rules on the KALSHI page list the exact boundaries and how ties or missing data are handled.
The settlement source and specific observing station (for example an official NWS/AWOS/ASOS site) are specified in the event rules; consult the event page to confirm the exact station, time zone, and measurement protocol used for settlement.
Use deterministic runs and ensemble spread from short-range models to assess frontal timing and the likelihood of warm advection versus cool intrusion; market prices often adjust when new model solutions or real-time observations change the expected synoptic setup.
Historical climatology and recent analog dates provide a baseline for what's typical on March 29, but day-to-day extremes are driven by the specific synoptic pattern—combine climatology with current model forecasts and local observations for a practical view.