| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 28, 2026 will be; it matters for short-term weather risk management, energy demand planning, and local event or agricultural decisions.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate with highly variable spring temperatures influenced by Gulf moisture and passing frontal systems. Late March can swing between mild and unseasonably warm conditions depending on synoptic-scale patterns, so historical averages and recent trends both provide useful context.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which temperature range or value will be the official maximum on that date; higher prices indicate stronger market consensus that a given outcome will be the recorded high.
The event resolves to the official maximum air temperature recorded for the calendar date March 28, 2026 at the event’s designated reporting site, using the observing and quality‑control procedures specified in the market’s resolution rules.
The authoritative station or data source is specified in the market rules; typically resolution is based on an official NOAA/NWS climate station serving the New Orleans area or another explicitly named observational record—consult the contract text for the exact source.
This market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes that partition possible maximum temperatures (either discrete values or ranged brackets); the outcome whose range or value contains the official daily maximum for March 28, 2026 will be the winning outcome.
The market close time is set by the contract (listed as TBD if not yet specified); resolution typically occurs after the official daily climate summary for March 28 is published by the designated data provider, per the timeline and verification procedures defined in the event rules.
Monitor short‑range model guidance (HRRR, NAM, ECMWF), NWS forecast updates for New Orleans, frontal timing and strength, cloud/precipitation trends, and near‑real‑time local observations—changes in any of these can shift the expected daily maximum.