| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 27, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-interested participants because it ties short-term weather variability to a single, well-defined observation day.
New Orleans' late-March temperatures are influenced by a mix of Gulf moisture, frontal systems, and seasonal warming; historically the city can see a wide springtime swing between cool and warm days. Climate trends have raised baseline temperatures over decades, but day-to-day weather drivers still produce the largest short-term differences.
Market odds reflect participants' aggregated views about which temperature outcome will be observed on that date; interpret prices as the market's collective expectation relative to alternatives rather than fixed forecasts.
Settlement generally uses the local calendar day for New Orleans (00:00 through 23:59 local time on March 27, 2026), meaning all official observations recorded during that local date are eligible.
This market will use the official observation published by the National Weather Service / NOAA for New Orleans as designated in the market rules; that is typically the official NWS climate station serving the metropolitan area as reflected in daily summaries.
Settlement occurs after the official daily climate summary for March 27, 2026 is published and verified by the designated authority—this can take from one to several days depending on data processing and the market operator's verification procedures.
If official data are missing or adjusted, the market follows its published contingency rules: operators use the next-best official source or the final adjusted official dataset specified in the rules; any special-case process will be documented by the market operator at settlement.
Major changes would include a frontal passage altering air mass temperatures, onset or clearing of widespread cloud cover or precipitation, or a significant shift in wind direction (e.g., sudden persistent onshore vs. offshore flow) that changes daytime warming potential.