| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 25, 2026. The result matters for short-term planning by residents, utilities, and weather-sensitive businesses.
Late March in New Orleans sits in a transitional season where warm Gulf air can produce springlike highs but periodic cold fronts can produce much cooler days; year-to-year variability is high. Long-term climate trends have shifted average temperatures upward, but single-day highs still depend primarily on synoptic weather patterns and cloud/precipitation conditions.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation about which temperature range will be observed and change as new forecasts and observations arrive. To interpret outcomes, compare the winning outcome to the official temperature observation specified in the event’s resolution rules.
The market close time is listed on the trading platform (currently TBD); the observation period is the local calendar day for March 25, 2026, as defined in the contract terms, typically from 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the official observing site.
Resolution uses the official observing source specified in the contract terms—commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for New Orleans; check the event rules to see the exact station or data feed that will be used.
A strong cold front arriving before or during the day would lower daytime maximums by replacing warm Gulf air with cooler continental air; the timing of frontal passage relative to peak daytime heating is critical to the realized high.
Large-scale pattern and frontal timing start to be usefully forecast several days ahead, with forecast confidence generally improving in the 1–3 days prior; sudden shifts remain possible until the front has actually progressed.
The contract’s resolution rules specify fallback procedures—typically using the official source’s data product or an agreed secondary data source, or following the platform’s dispute resolution policy; consult the event’s rules for exact procedures.