| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 23, 2026. Results matter for weather-sensitive operations, short-term energy and demand planning, and as a snapshot of day-to-day climate variability.
Late March in New Orleans is a transitional period when outbreaks of cool air from the continent can alternate with warm, humid Gulf air, so daily highs can swing substantially year to year. Long-term warming trends have shifted baseline temperatures upward, but the realized temperature on a single date is driven primarily by short-term synoptic weather patterns. Historical extremes demonstrate that both unusually warm and cool outcomes are possible in this season.
Market prices reflect the collective information and risk preferences of traders and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic signal of market consensus, not a deterministic forecast.
The market settles to the official value reported by the designated observation source and uses the contract's defined local calendar day window. Consult the event contract page to see which specific station and time period (e.g., 00:00–24:00 local time) the market uses, since that specification is authoritative for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins that cover all possible highest-temperature values; the event page lists the exact numeric bin boundaries. Traders should review those bin cutoffs on the contract page to understand what observation maps to each outcome.
This event currently shows a closing time of TBD; typically trading closes at or before the start of the observation day. Final settlement occurs after the official observation is published and any applicable quality-control is applied—check the event page for the precise close and settlement schedule.
A persistent southerly flow pulling warm, moist air from the Gulf, prolonged clear skies with strong daytime insolation, and the absence of a frontal passage can all lead to an unexpectedly warm daytime maximum. Local wind patterns and reduced cloud cover during peak heating hours are especially influential.
Official observation networks perform automated and manual quality control after initial reporting. The contract follows the final vetted value as specified in the event rules; any post-publication corrections are handled according to the contract's correction and dispute procedures—refer to the event text for details.