| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans will be on March 22, 2026; it matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and weather-sensitive planning in the region.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate and March is a transitional month that can produce a wide range of temperatures depending on synoptic-scale weather patterns. Long-term climate trends, seasonal variability, and the timing of frontal passages all contribute to how warm or cool any given March day will be.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about the official daily maximum as reported by the designated observing authority; interpret prices as a real-time aggregation of those expectations rather than as guarantees of the outcome.
The market resolves to the highest daily air temperature as recorded by the designated official source specified by the market operator—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA official observing station or the designated ASOS/AWOS site for the New Orleans area; consult the market page for the exact resolving source.
The relevant period is the official calendar day used by the reporting station: 00:00 through 24:00 local time (New Orleans is on Central Time; late-March dates are typically in daylight saving time), as defined by the resolving authority.
Resolution follows the market operator's stated policy: the market uses the final value from the designated official source. If that source issues later revisions, the market resolves according to the operator’s rules about using revised or final climatological records—check the event page for those specifics.
This market presents six discrete outcome bins that map to temperature ranges for the day; the exact numeric boundaries for each outcome are listed on the market detail page and are the authoritative mapping for trades and resolution.
Use historical climatology as a baseline for what’s typical for late March in New Orleans, then overlay short-range forecast guidance (model ensembles, NWS forecasts, and current observations) to account for transient features like fronts, cloud cover, and precipitation that will dominate the day-to-day outcome.