| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 21, 2026. It matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy use, public safety, and local planning.
March is a transitional month in the U.S. Gulf Coast, so New Orleans can experience a wide range of temperatures depending on synoptic-scale weather patterns. Markets like this translate those meteorological uncertainties into tradable outcomes tied to an official observation source.
Market prices summarize the beliefs of participants about which outcome will occur and can be used alongside official forecasts and climatological norms. Treat market signals as one input, not a definitive forecast—combine them with weather models and official station data.
The contract will specify the official observing station and data source (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA station designated for New Orleans); check the event rules on the platform to confirm the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
Most contracts use the local calendar day for the specified date (the 24‑hour period defined in the contract), but the precise start/end times and time zone (standard or daylight time) are set in the event terms—review them on the market page.
The event currently lists closing time as TBD; the exchange will post a firm trading close and a resolution schedule. Resolution typically occurs after the official observation is published, but timing and settlement procedures depend on the platform’s rulebook.
The market’s rulebook defines fallback and adjustment procedures—common approaches include waiting for corrected official data, using a designated alternate dataset, or applying a specified vendor’s final values; consult the event rules for the exact policy.
March 21 falls in a seasonally variable period when both cool and warm episodes are possible; look at long-term climatology for typical ranges and recent weekly forecasts for synoptic guidance, then combine that meteorological context with the market’s available outcomes when forming a view.