| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be recorded as the highest in New Orleans on March 20, 2026; it matters for traders who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes and for anyone tracking seasonal shifts.
March 20 falls near the spring equinox when New Orleans can see rapid swings between cool, frontal air and early-season warm spells. Historical variability on this date reflects the city’s subtropical climate and sensitivity to Gulf of Mexico air masses and synoptic-scale frontal passages.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which outcome will be observed based on forecasts and climatology; consult the event’s resolution rules to understand exactly what observation and rounding conventions determine settlement.
The market’s resolution criteria specify the official observing station and agency (for example a designated National Weather Service/NOAA station). Check the event page or settlement rules for the exact named source used to determine the outcome.
Resolution timing depends on the official source’s publication of the daily summary; the market will settle based on the published daily maximum from the designated station and according to the settlement window described on the event page.
The event’s rule text defines units, rounding conventions, and tie-breaking procedures—these determine how an observed temperature maps to an outcome, so review those specifications before trading.
Operational NWP model runs (GFS, ECMWF), high-resolution mesoscale models, surface analyses for frontal timing, satellite/radar for cloud cover, and local observations of Gulf temperatures and wind direction are typically the most informative inputs.
Knowing climatological normals, the range of recent March 20 observations, and the frequency of early spring warm spells versus frontal intrusions provides context for plausible outcomes; use historical patterns together with current forecasts rather than relying on climatology alone.