| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° to 76° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 2, 2026. It matters for people and businesses with weather-sensitive operations and for tracking short-term impacts of seasonal and climate variability.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate and early March can produce a wide range of outcomes due to interactions between Gulf moisture, transient cold fronts, and springtime sun angles. Recent years have shown greater volatility in day-to-day extremes, but day-specific synoptic patterns typically dominate the realized maximum on a given date. Market participants can use both climatology and short-term forecast updates to form expectations.
Market odds summarize the collective expectations of traders based on available information and update as new weather model runs and observations arrive. Use them as a real-time synthesis of forecast signals rather than as a replacement for official meteorological guidance.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin for the highest observed temperature in New Orleans on March 2, 2026, as listed on the market page; consult the market's outcome labels for the exact temperature ranges.
Resolution timing is indicated on the market page (currently TBD); the market resolves to the official highest daily temperature reported by the designated observing station specified in the market rules—typically an NWS/NOAA reporting station—so check the event rules for the exact station and resolution procedure.
Treat new model runs and surface observations as the primary drivers of short-term shifts; models that change the expected frontal timing or cloud/precipitation cover within 48 hours of the event usually produce the largest market moves.
A front arriving overnight or persistent morning clouds would likely suppress daytime maximums by bringing cooler air or reducing solar heating, whereas a delayed front or clearing skies would favor higher daytime temperatures.
Total volume traded ($20,642) indicates the level of market liquidity and interest, while the six outcomes show how the market partitions possible temperatures—both help assess how much information has been incorporated and how easy it is to enter or exit positions.