| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in New Orleans on March 19, 2026; it matters for traders interested in weather-driven risk and for people tracking seasonal variability in the Gulf Coast region.
Mid-March in New Orleans is a transitional period when temperatures can swing between cool, mild, and warm depending on frontal passages and Gulf moisture. Historical records show broad year-to-year variability driven by synoptic-scale patterns, local sea-surface temperatures, and urban heat island effects. Short-term weather systems (cold fronts, southerly surges, or cloud cover) commonly determine daily highs more than long-term trends for a single date.
Market odds aggregate traders' views and incoming information about likely temperature outcomes; they move as new forecasts, observations, and risk appetites change. Interpret them as the market's consensus expectation at a given time, not a fixed truth—the underlying weather observation ultimately determines settlement.
Settlement will use the official source specified in the event's settlement rules on the platform—typically an NWS/NOAA or NCEI-observed value at the named New Orleans reporting station; check the event page for the exact dataset and station identifier that will be used.
The event page shows the market close time (currently listed as TBD); final trading closes according to that timestamp, while the temperature used for settlement will be the highest official observation recorded during the local calendar day for Mar 19, 2026 as defined in the contract rules.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins defined in the contract; after the official observation for Mar 19 is published by the specified data source, the single bin that contains that reported highest temperature will be the settling outcome.
The event's settlement rules govern fallbacks—common approaches include using the first valid report from the specified official source, a qualified provisional observation, or a final archived value from the designated agency; consult the event's dispute and settlement clause for exact procedures.
Use multi-year observations from the same reporting station to understand typical variability and extremes for that date, but combine climatological context with current forecast model trends and short-term synoptic indicators—single-day outcomes are often driven by transient weather systems rather than long-term averages.