| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will represent the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 18, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because it aggregates expectations about short-term weather conditions and can inform planning for energy, events, and outdoor activities.
New Orleans experiences large day-to-day temperature swings in March due to clashes between lingering winter air masses and early spring warmth from the Gulf of Mexico. Long-term warming trends can shift seasonal baselines, but single-day highs are driven primarily by synoptic weather patterns and local factors. Historical March 18 readings provide context but do not determine the outcome for 2026, which depends on the immediate weather setup.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants about which outcome will occur and will adjust as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use them to track how information (forecasts, model updates, observations) shifts consensus about the expected maximum temperature on that date.
The market uses the maximum air temperature reported for the designated official observing location(s) covering New Orleans during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time). Check the contract's resolution rules on the event page to confirm the specific station and data source used for settlement.
Resolution occurs after the official daily observations for March 18, 2026 are published by the designated reporting agency. Publication timing varies by source; typically daily summaries are available the same day or within 24–48 hours, but consult the market rules for the exact resolution timeline.
Historical values provide a climatological baseline and show typical variability for mid-March, which helps assess whether a given outcome would be unusually warm or cool. However, short-term synoptic dynamics for March 18, 2026 will be the primary determinant, so combine climatology with current model forecasts.
Major changes include forecasted frontal passages, significant shifts in upper-level pattern (ridging vs. troughing), changes in predicted cloud cover or precipitation, and any updates to model guidance about wind direction from the Gulf or dry continental air intrusions.
Yes. Observing stations differ in elevation, exposure, and urban surroundings, so maximums can vary across short distances. The exact station(s) specified by the contract determine the settled value, so confirm which site is authoritative for this market.