| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain the highest air temperature observed in New Orleans on March 17, 2026. The result is useful for weather-sensitive planning, short-term risk management, and tracking how forecasts translate into realized conditions.
Mid-March in New Orleans sits in a transition season when Gulf moisture, lingering cool shots from the north, or early warm spells can all dominate; day-to-day swings are common. Historical March temperatures in the region show substantial variability, so synoptic timing (cold front vs. ridge of high pressure) often determines whether a given date is cool or unusually warm.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which temperature range will be realized; they update as new forecast model runs, observations, and front timing become available. Treat prices as a continuously updating signal rather than a fixed forecast snapshot.
Settlement will use the official observation source named in the event description (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA official station assigned to the New Orleans area). Consult the event’s settlement/source field to confirm the exact station and dataset that will be used.
Unless the event description specifies otherwise, 'on Mar 17, 2026' refers to the local calendar day for New Orleans (midnight through 23:59:59 local time). The highest valid air temperature recorded by the designated official station within that 24‑hour period will be used for settlement.
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); trading typically stops before the start of the observation period. Settlement occurs after the official observations for Mar 17 are published and verified by the specified data provider, and the platform will announce the settlement outcome once the source data are available.
The event description contains the specific tie-breaking and missing-data procedures. Commonly, if the primary data source lacks a valid observation, the event uses the backup or the final verified value from the authoritative provider; exact rules for rounding, precision, and ties are defined in the settlement protocol for this market.
Track short-range numerical weather model runs (00–120 hour ensembles), surface and upper-air observations, national/regional NWS forecasts and discussion, frontal timing, cloud/precipitation trends, and any rapid changes in Gulf moisture. Forecast certainty typically improves within 48–72 hours of the target date, which is when market-relevant information accumulates fastest.