| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the highest observed air temperature in New Orleans on March 16, 2026, as recorded at the official reporting station. It matters because daily temperature extremes influence energy demand, public-health planning, and local operations for that date.
Mid-March in New Orleans is a transitional period when temperatures can swing between cool, frontal conditions and springlike warmth depending on synoptic patterns. Historical daily highs for this date vary substantially due to frontal passages, Gulf moisture return, and local effects; longer-term climate trends have shifted the overall distribution of temperatures in recent decades. Forecast model guidance, sea-surface temperatures, and large-scale climate modes (e.g., ENSO) are relevant to conditions on and just before March 16.
Prediction market prices represent the collective view of traders about which temperature outcome will occur and update as new meteorological information arrives. Treat prices as a real-time consensus indicator rather than a definitive forecast; final determination is made from the official observational record according to the market's settlement rules.
Settlement will be based on the official NOAA/NWS observation for the New Orleans reporting station specified in the market's rules. Consult the event's rule page for the exact station identifier and any fallback station(s) used if the primary station data are unavailable.
The relevant window is the local calendar day on March 16, 2026 (00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time), with local daylight saving time applied if in effect; the market's settlement rules provide the precise definition.
Final settlement relies on the official, quality-controlled observational record published by the reporting agency (NOAA/NWS); transient spikes that are removed during official quality control will not be used. The market rules describe any QA flags and procedures followed before settlement.
The platform sets the trading close time and will list it on the market page; if it is currently TBD, monitor the market for an announced close. Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 16 has been published and any required quality-control steps are completed per the market rules.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs for frontal timing and strength, surface pressure patterns, temperature advection, cloud-cover and precipitation forecasts, and rapid-warming events driven by low-level winds; also track updates to official NWS forecasts and observations for New Orleans.