| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome corresponds to the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 15, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect local planning, energy use, and illustrate how traders incorporate meteorological information into prices.
March is a transitional month in New Orleans with substantial day-to-day variability driven by fronts, Gulf moisture, and local sea-breeze effects. Historical March temperatures show a wide spread, so single-day outcomes can swing based on synoptic-scale features that arrive near the target date. Operational forecasts, observations, and the exact observing station used for settlement are all relevant background context.
Market odds aggregate participants' current beliefs about which temperature outcome will be realized; they are not deterministic forecasts but update as new meteorological data and model runs arrive. Use the market as a real-time signal of expectations, while checking the contract rules for settlement details.
Settlement will follow the data source and station specified in the market's contract; markets commonly use the National Weather Service/NOAA official observation for the New Orleans metropolitan area, so check the contract rules to confirm the exact station and dataset.
The market uses the calendar date and local time definition stated in the contract (typically the local 00:00–23:59 period); consult the settlement rules to confirm whether local standard or daylight time applies.
The contract's contingency and verification procedures govern such cases; common approaches include using the nearest reliable station, quality-controlled NWS replacements, or follow-up adjudication by the market operator—review the settlement policy for the exact process.
Final settlement usually occurs after the responsible meteorological agency publishes quality-controlled daily observations; the timing depends on that agency and the market operator, and may be one or more days after March 15.
Major model run updates indicating the passage or delay of fronts, changes in forecast cloud cover or precipitation, evolving wind patterns (onshore vs offshore), and recent surface or upper-air observations near New Orleans will have the largest influence on expectations.