| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 14, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk management, event planning, and understanding day-to-day climate variability in a coastal city.
New Orleans has a subtropical climate where early spring temperatures can vary widely due to frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and local effects like the urban heat island. Historical late-winter/early-spring highs have ranged from cool, post-front values to unseasonably warm days when southerly flow and sunshine dominate. Local observing station choice and the exact settlement definition determine which thermometer reading resolves the market.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of traders based on forecasts, climatology, and risk preferences and will change as new weather data and model guidance arrive. To interpret them for this event, focus on how they move relative to forecast updates rather than as fixed truth.
Settlement is based on the official source specified in the contract terms; check the market's contract details to see the designated reporting station and dataset (commonly an NWS/NCEI station such as a New Orleans airport station).
The market uses the calendar day as defined in the contract (typically local midnight-to-midnight), so confirm whether local standard or daylight-saving time rules apply in the contract language.
Most markets follow the official published value used by the designated data custodian; if that agency issues a corrected value within the contract's allowed settlement window, the corrected value will be used—see the contract for the exact correction and contestation rules.
Monitor deterministic model runs for frontal timing, ensemble spreads for uncertainty, high-resolution convection-allowing models for cloud/precip timing, and official NWS forecasts for observed trends and warnings.
Urban surfaces and built environment can elevate daytime and nighttime temperatures compared with nearby rural areas, while proximity to the Gulf can moderate extremes; wind direction, land-sea temperature contrasts, and local land cover will therefore influence the peak temperature reported at the designated observing site.