| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans will be on March 12, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders who monitor temperature risk and short-term climate variability.
March is a transitional month in New Orleans when conditions can swing between cool, frontal air and Gulf-sourced warmth; daily maxima on a given date can therefore vary substantially from year to year. Historical March 12 values provide context but do not guarantee outcomes, because synoptic-scale patterns and local mesoscale effects drive day-to-day differences.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants about which discrete outcome will occur and will update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as a real-time indicator of the market’s consensus, not as a fixed climatological fact.
The contract’s resolution source (specified on the market page) defines the observation used; typically this is an official NWS/ASOS station or a named NCEI dataset for the New Orleans metro area—consult the market’s fine print to confirm the exact station or dataset.
The market close time is set by KALSHI and listed on the event page (currently TBD); the measurement period for the event is the local calendar day for March 12, 2026 (usually 00:00–24:00 local time) as defined in the contract—verify the precise window in the contract text.
The highest temperature is the maximum air temperature reported by the contract’s specified data source during the defined measurement period; if multiple instruments or preliminary/final datasets differ, resolution follows the platform’s stated hierarchy and the official data source named in the contract.
Yes—if the platform resolves based on final or revised official records, post-event corrections can affect the outcome; the market’s resolution rules will state whether preliminary or final data are used and how revisions are handled.
Watch synoptic-scale forecast updates (timing of fronts and low-pressure systems), ensemble model spreads, Gulf SST anomalies and onshore flow, short-range predictions of cloud cover and precipitation, and any notices about the observation site or equipment that could affect the recorded maximum.