| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded in New Orleans on March 11, 2026; it matters because one-day temperature extremes influence local energy use, public health planning, and weather-sensitive operations. Market prices aggregate public expectations about the day's temperature based on forecasts and observations.
New Orleans has a humid subtropical climate and early March is a transitional month when conditions can swing from cool, post-frontal air to unseasonably warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Large-scale climate patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña tendencies) and the short-term synoptic setup both shape the day's temperature. The contract will settle to the official observation reported by the data source specified in the platform's event rules.
Prediction market odds represent the collective expectation of traders about which temperature outcome will occur and will change as model guidance, observations, and news arrive. Treat prices as a summary of available information rather than definitive forecasts.
The definitive answer is in the event's settlement specification on the platform: it will state whether the highest 1-minute, 5-minute, or hourly reported value from the designated observing source on the calendar date is used; that definition is binding for settlement.
The market's contract on KALSHI names the official data source and observing station or network used for settlement; traders should consult that contract language to see whether a specific NWS station, airport sensor, or aggregate data feed is authoritative.
The posted event details show the close time if set; if listed as TBD, the platform will announce the exact trading close before it happens. Settlement normally occurs after the official observation for Mar 11 is published by the designated source and any platform dispute window has closed.
Historical climatology shows that early March can produce a wide range of temperatures depending on synoptic setup, so using multi-year records, recent analog dates, and trends can help judge how unusual a given forecast would be for Mar 11 while remembering that single-day extremes are strongly influenced by short-term weather systems.
Monitor short-range model ensembles, surface observations, and local NWS forecasts for changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation; update positions when you believe the market has not yet incorporated new, reliable information or when you have a faster read on evolving conditions.