| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 8% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which outcome will represent the highest air temperature recorded in New Orleans on March 10, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public-health preparedness, and local planning decisions.
March in New Orleans is a shoulder-season month with high day-to-day variability: warm Gulf air can yield unseasonably mild days while cold continental fronts can produce abrupt drops. Seasonal patterns (e.g., sea-surface temperatures and larger-scale teleconnections) set a background, but synoptic-scale systems and the exact timing of frontal passages typically determine the temperature on any given day.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants and update as new meteorological information arrives; they indicate the market consensus at a given time but are not guarantees of the eventual observed value.
The event uses the local calendar day for the designated observation site—00:00 to 23:59 local time—so check the contract rules for the specified time zone and any daylight-saving time notes.
The market resolves to the official data provider and station named in the event's resolution rules (commonly a National Weather Service ASOS/AWOS or specific municipal airport station); consult the event page to see the exact station identifier and provider.
The contract's description specifies the measurement units (°F or °C) and how values are binned or rounded into the discrete outcomes offered; verify those definitions on the event page before trading.
Resolution normally follows the final official observation from the designated provider; the event's resolution policy details cutoff times for accepting revisions and any dispute-resolution procedures.
Monitor successive model runs for frontal timing, official NWS forecasts and warnings, satellite and radar trends for cloud cover and convection, surface observations and overnight lows, and any changes in Gulf moisture transport—these short-term signals typically drive updates to market assessments.