| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $76K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $71K | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 9, 2026 will be. It matters because daily high temperatures affect energy demand, travel safety, agriculture, and short-term economic decisions.
Minneapolis sits in a continental climate where early March can swing between late-winter cold and early-spring warmth; individual days often reflect synoptic-scale systems or lingering snow cover. Recent years have seen increasing frequency of warm extremes in many regions, but day-to-day variability remains large and driven by weather patterns.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed, and they update as new forecasts, observations, and model runs arrive. Use them as a real-time signal of what informed participants expect, not as a deterministic forecast.
The contract resolves to the official source specified in the event rules; that typically means the designated National Weather Service or other named official observing station or dataset listed by the market operator. Check the event's rule text on the platform for the exact station or dataset used for resolution.
Resolution windows are defined in the event rules; many weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the named location, with the official daily summary used to determine the maximum. Confirm the precise timing in the market's rule section before trading.
The market will use the specific official observation product named in its rules (for example, an NWS daily climate report, METAR series, or a specified NOAA dataset). The event rules state which source is authoritative for settlement.
Historical daily maximums provide context on typical variability and extremes for that date, helping you gauge how unusual different outcomes would be; consult long-term daily records for March 9 at the same official station to avoid mixing stations or time periods.
Yes — afternoon frontal passages, sudden cloud changes, precipitation onset, or rapid snowmelt can materially change the observed daily maximum even hours before the end of the calendar day. Short-range observations and high-resolution model updates are most useful for capturing those late changes.