| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° or below | 91% | 90¢ | 96¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 9% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis will be on March 8, 2026; it matters for traders, forecasters, and anyone tracking short-term weather extremes or planning weather-sensitive activities that day.
Early March in Minneapolis is a seasonally volatile period with rapid swings between cold Arctic air and springlike warmth; day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on the position of synoptic-scale systems and local surface conditions. Long-term climate trends have raised average temperatures over decades, but individual daily maxima remain driven by immediate weather patterns and snow cover.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and adjust as new observations and model guidance arrive; they are best read as a continually updating consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will follow the market's resolution clause; typically that references an official National Weather Service observation site for the Minneapolis metro as specified on the event page—check the event's resolution/source text for the exact station or dataset used.
The day is usually defined as the local civil day for Minneapolis (Central Time), e.g., 00:00 through 23:59 local time, but confirm the exact start/end times in the event's resolution rules on the market page.
KALSHI's published resolution rules specify fallback procedures—common approaches include using the official archived observation, an alternate official station, or declaring the market resolvable only after data corrections; consult the event resolution text for the precise policy.
Yes—widespread fresh snow raises surface albedo and cools near-surface temperatures, limiting daytime heating; lack of snow and wet ground favor higher daytime maxima, so antecedent snow conditions are an important consideration.
Deterministic model guidance can show large-scale pattern trends several days in advance, but reliable detail on the exact daily maximum usually improves within a 48–72 hour window as frontal timing, cloud cover, and mesoscale features become clearer.