| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 96% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 7, 2026 will be. It matters for weather-sensitive individuals, businesses, and traders who want to express views on near-term temperature outcomes for that specific date.
Early March in Minneapolis is a transition period that can produce large swings between lingering winter cold and the first taste of spring warmth; synoptic-scale patterns and recent snow cover strongly modulate realized highs. Year-to-year variability can be large due to factors such as Arctic air outbreaks, the position of the jet stream, and broader climate influences like ENSO or the Arctic Oscillation.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders about which temperature bracket will be the day's maximum and update as new model runs, observations, or local reports arrive. Use market prices as a real-time signal of consensus expectation while also consulting official forecasts and observational data for operational decisions.
Resolution is based on the official observing period specified in the contract description — typically the highest observation recorded between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on March 7, 2026 at the designated station. Check the contract for the precise local-time window and any rounding rules.
The contract description names the official source used to resolve the market (for example, a specific NOAA/NWS ASOS station or another designated official dataset). Confirm that source in the market’s ruling/resolution details before trading.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins that together cover the plausible range of highest temperatures for the date; each bin’s numeric bounds and any inclusivity rules are listed in the contract labels. Review those labels to know which bin a future observation would fall into.
The market follows the final official record published by the designated observing agency. If that agency issues corrections, the platform resolves according to the agency’s final corrected value and any dispute or appeal procedures outlined in the market’s rules.
Broad synoptic trends (cold versus warm regime) are often apparent several days ahead, but the precise timing of fronts, cloud cover, and mesoscale features that determine the daily high usually becomes much clearer in the 24–48 hours before the target date. Consult model ensembles and the NWS forecast as the date approaches for the most actionable guidance.