| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 22% | 23¢ | 24¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 23% | 23¢ | 24¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 45% | 43¢ | 44¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $852 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $600 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis (for the specified official observing location) will be on March 5, 2026. It matters because end‑of‑winter temperature swings affect transportation, energy demand, snowpack melt, and local planning decisions.
Minneapolis in early March sits in a transitional season where days can swing from wintry cold to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Long-term climate trends have nudged seasonal baselines upward, but individual daily outcomes remain strongly driven by short-term weather systems such as Arctic outbreaks or warm Pacific storms. The market captures traders’ aggregated views on which of those influences will dominate on that specific date.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of participants about which temperature range will be observed and update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change. Use prices as a dynamic indicator of consensus, and consult official meteorological sources for raw temperature data and post-event verification.
The contract specifies the official observing station or data source used for settlement; typically that is the National Weather Service (NWS) official station designated for Minneapolis (for example the MSP official site). Check the market's contract text for the exact station and data product.
The date is interpreted as the local calendar day for Minneapolis (Central Time), covering 00:00 through 23:59 local time on March 5, 2026, unless the contract specifies a different interval—refer to the contract rules for precise time definitions.
Resolution timing depends on when the designated authority publishes final quality-controlled temperature data; markets typically settle after official final observations or after a specified waiting period noted in the contract. Consult the contract’s resolution clause for expected settlement timing and procedures.
Most contracts rely on the official agency’s final, quality-controlled dataset; if data are missing or flagged, the contract’s contingency rules describe fallback procedures (e.g., using nearest official station, using final revised values, or declaring no settlement). Review the market’s specified dispute and fallback rules.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs for frontal timing, amplitude of ridges/troughs, low-level temperature advection, snow-cover forecasts, and surface station forecasts from the NWS; updated observations and airport METARs in the 24–72 hours prior to the date are particularly informative for the likely daytime maximum.