| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 4, 2026. It matters for participants tracking short-term weather risk, seasonal anomalies, and local climate variability.
Early March in Minneapolis is a transitional month with large day-to-day swings driven by the clash of lingering Arctic air and incoming Pacific or southern warmth. Long-term warming trends have shifted the distribution of early‑spring temperatures, but individual days remain controlled by synoptic-scale weather systems. Settlement specifics (official station, observation window, and data source) are set by the market rules and should be checked on the event page.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will occur and update as forecasts and observations evolve; interpret them as an evolving forecast signal rather than a fixed truth.
The market will specify an authoritative data source in its settlement rules—commonly an NWS/NOAA observation at the official Minneapolis airport station or a designated local observing site. Check the event page for the binding source.
Most weather markets use the local calendar day (midnight to midnight local time) at the designated station, but the exact observation window is defined in the market's settlement rules—verify the event page for that detail.
Settlement typically follows the final quality-controlled value published by the named data provider or the timing specified in the market rules; consult the event's rulebook for the treatment of post-publication revisions and any cutoff for using amended data.
Snowpack is important: extensive snow increases albedo and surface cooling, reducing daytime maxima, while little or patchy snow allows stronger warming under sunshine. The effect also depends on station siting and whether melting is underway.
Watch synoptic-scale model ensembles (e.g., ECMWF/GFS) several days out for frontal timing, then high-resolution short-range models and observations (HRRR, RAP, surface obs, satellite) within 48 hours for mesoscale timing and cloud trends; also monitor official NWS forecasts and advisories. Confirm market close time on the event page (TBD).