| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature reported for Minneapolis will be on March 3, 2026; it matters because weather extremes affect travel, energy demand, and local decision making. Market prices aggregate real‑time expectations about weather conditions for that specific date.
Early March is a transitional period in the Upper Midwest when large swings between unseasonably warm and cold conditions are common; synoptic patterns that bring warm air from the south or Arctic intrusions from Canada largely determine day‑to‑day outcomes. Longer‑term climate trends have shifted the baseline toward warmer extremes, but day‑to‑day weather still depends on the fast‑moving large‑scale pattern and surface conditions such as snow cover.
Odds or prices in this market reflect the collective, continuously updated view of participants based on model forecasts, observations, and new information; they move as forecasts and on‑the‑ground observations change. Interpret prices as the market consensus expectation at a given moment, not a fixed prediction.
It settles on the single highest air temperature value reported for the specified calendar date at the official observation site named in the contract; units, rounding rules, and the exact reporting timeframe are defined in the event description on the platform.
The contract specifies the official source (for example, an NWS/NOAA official observation site or another named station); consult the KALSHI event page for the exact station and data product that will be used for settlement.
Settlement occurs after the official daily maximum for the named station is published by the designated source and verified by the platform; official daily summaries are usually posted by the responsible meteorological agency soon after the date in question.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature categories or ranges as laid out in the event specification; the exact numeric breakpoints, units, and any inclusivity rules are listed on the event page and should be consulted before trading.
Updated numerical weather prediction model runs, short‑term observational trends (surface stations, satellite, and radar), changes in forecasted frontal timing or cloud cover, and any real‑time reports of rapid snowmelt or unanticipated warming/cooling will be the primary drivers of price movement.