| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis will be on March 29, 2026; the outcome matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand, and short-term climate signaling.
Late March in Minneapolis is a transitional period where large swings from cold to warm are common, driven by the jet stream and the timing of spring storms. Historical March 29 values have varied widely depending on whether Arctic air remained in place or warm southern flow prevailed. Settlement for this market will be based on an official observing site and the market's published rules, so consult those details for exact measurement definitions.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations based on forecasts, observations, and risk preferences, and they change as new model runs and real-world data arrive. Treat market prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed forecast.
The market uses the observing station and time standard specified in its settlement rules (typically an NWS/NOAA-designated Minneapolis station and the local civil date); check KALSHI's event documentation to confirm the exact station and clock used for Mar 29, 2026.
The listed close time is currently TBD; KALSHI will announce a closing time prior to the event. Final settlement occurs after the designated observing authority publishes and verifies the official daily temperature record, which can take a few days.
Short-range shifts in model solutions that change the track or timing of fronts and low-pressure systems, the presence or absence of warm southerly flow, changes in cloud cover, and rapid snowmelt are the primary near-term influences to watch.
Temperature attribution follows the market's local date convention in the settlement rules; a measurement recorded after 00:00 local time is normally counted toward that civil date, so a spike around midnight will be assigned according to those documented boundaries.
Long-term warming shifts the baseline climate and can subtly influence the distribution of daily extremes, but the observed highest temperature on a single day is primarily driven by the immediate synoptic pattern and local conditions; both perspectives are useful when interpreting market movement.