| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome corresponds to the highest observed air temperature in Minneapolis on March 28, 2026, and matters for traders and observers tracking short-term weather risk. It provides a marketplace for anticipating that single-day weather extreme at a city scale.
Late March in Minneapolis is a transition month with large day-to-day variability driven by the timing of cold Arctic intrusions versus warm southerly surges; seasonal baselines have shifted over decades but synoptic weather still controls day-to-day highs. Forecast confidence generally improves as the date approaches and high-resolution models and observations converge.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of participants and update as new model runs, observations, and local conditions arrive; they summarize, but do not replace, official meteorological forecasts and observations.
The market resolves to the maximum official air temperature recorded during the defined local calendar date at the station or dataset specified in the market's resolution rules; check the event page for the named observing station and any time-window details.
The event page lists the authoritative source and station or dataset used for settlement; if a specific observing site is named there, that site’s official reported value is used per the platform’s resolution rules.
The market close is listed as TBD on the page; resolution will occur after the end of the local calendar date once the official observation is published — consult the event page for the platform’s settlement timeline and any post-date publication window.
Short-range model runs, surface observations, and ensemble agreement typically drive the largest market moves; traders update positions as forecast confidence increases in the 1–7 day window and as new data (radiosonde, satellite, surface obs) arrive.
Settlement follows the platform’s dispute and revision policy: the specified official dataset/station in the market rules is authoritative, and any post-publication revisions are handled according to the platform’s published dispute/resolution procedures.