| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 27, 2026 will be and aggregates trader expectations about that daily maximum. The outcome matters for short-term impacts on energy demand, transportation, and event planning and acts as a near-term test of forecast skill.
Late March is a transitional period in Minneapolis with high day-to-day variability driven by shifting storm tracks, cold-air intrusions, and occasional warm spells. Official daily temperatures for city markets are determined by a specific observing station and protocol; consult the event rules for the exact observational source used for settlement. While climatology provides context, synoptic-scale weather patterns and surface conditions in the days before March 27 tend to control the realized maximum.
Market prices represent the crowd-sourced expectation of which temperature outcome will be realized; they update as forecasts, observations, and trader views change. Use price movement as realtime information about changing weather risk rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will use the specific observational source named in the event rules; for Minneapolis temperature markets this is commonly the NWS/NOAA observation at Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport (MSP) but you must check the event's rules page to confirm the exact station and data feed used.
The event rules specify the timezone and cutoff used for the day—typically the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the designated observing station—so consult those rules to confirm the settlement window.
The daily maximum is the highest observed value during the defined period; repeated occurrences do not alter the maximum—the official reported daily max will be taken from the designated station's recorded observations.
Short‑range model runs, satellite/radar trends, and surface observations can materially change expectations in the final 24–48 hours; markets often move quickly in response, so monitor nowcasts and recent observations rather than relying solely on longer‑range guidance.
Consider late‑March climatological variability for Minneapolis (a season of rapid swings between winter and spring), any recent warming or cooling trends, and current snow cover; however, emphasize current synoptic setup and short‑range forecasts because they typically dominate the realized daily maximum.