| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 25, 2026 will be; it matters because late‑March temperatures can influence energy demand, travel, and short‑term local planning. Market prices reflect how traders incorporate weather forecasts, observations, and climatology into expectations for that calendar day.
Late March in Minneapolis is a transitional time from winter to spring, and day‑to‑day temperature swings can be large due to shifting storm tracks and fast‑moving air masses. Historical records and recent seasonal trends provide context, but short‑range model forecasts and surface conditions often dominate expectations in the days immediately before the date.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of traders about which temperature bracket will be the maximum on that date and will move as new forecast data and observations arrive. Use them as a real‑time indicator of expectation, not as a guarantee of the final official observation.
Resolution will use the official maximum air temperature reported for March 25, 2026 by the specific observing station and data source named in the market rules; check the event page for the designated station (often the local National Weather Service climate location) and the measurement standard (e.g., 6‑minute or daily max).
The market close time is listed as TBD; the outcome will be finalized after the designated data provider publishes the official daily maximum for March 25, 2026. Consult the event rules for how long settlement may wait for official reports or corrections.
Widespread snow cover raises surface albedo and cools the near‑surface layer, often limiting daytime warming, whereas bare ground and recent snowmelt allow much faster solar heating and higher daytime maxima; localized melting can create sharp contrasts across the metro area.
Short‑range numerical models (e.g., HRRR, NAM, high‑resolution ensembles), surface observations, satellite cloudcover trends, and frontal timing forecasts are the primary inputs traders use to update expectations in the days and hours before March 25.
Compare the market’s expected ranges to climatology from official sources (NCEI/NWS) for March 25 and recent year‑to‑year variability; historical context helps gauge how unusual a forecasted high would be, but short‑term synoptic developments can produce departures from the long‑term average.