| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 24, 2026 will be. It matters because daily high temperatures drive energy demand, public-health planning, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions in the region.
Minneapolis sits in a mid-latitude continental climate where late-March can still show strong variability between winter-like cold and spring warmth. Day-to-day outcomes depend on synoptic-scale patterns (arctic air outbreaks versus warm-air advection) and local factors like snow cover and urban effects. Historical March days have produced a wide spread of highs, so single-date forecasts can move substantially as the event approaches.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which temperature interval will be the daily maximum at the official observing site on that date. To interpret prices properly, confirm the contract’s official observation source and resolution rules before trading.
Resolution normally uses the local calendar day for the official observing station—i.e., 00:00 through 23:59 local time (Central Time for Minneapolis)—but you should check the event’s contract text to confirm the precise measurement window.
The event’s contract will specify an official source; many weather contracts reference the National Weather Service (NWS) official observation for the Minneapolis–Saint Paul area (commonly the MSP airport station) or the NWS climate record. Always verify the contract’s stated resolution source.
Settlement follows the single authoritative source named in the contract. If the contract leaves source or procedure ambiguous, the market operator’s published dispute and resolution process will determine final settlement.
Watch the evolution of upper-level troughs/ridges, the track of surface lows and cold fronts, and any amplifying jet stream features that could either pull down Arctic air or promote warm-air advection from the south.
Extensive snow cover raises surface albedo and promotes cooler daytime temperatures by reflecting sunlight and maintaining cold ground temperatures; a recent storm can also keep skies cloudy and suppress daytime heating. Local melting and exposed pavement can produce warmer readings in urbanized observing sites.