| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Minneapolis on March 22, 2026; it matters because daily maxima influence energy use, public health, and local operations, and markets aggregate dispersed weather information.
Late March in Minneapolis is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability: rapid warm-ups from southerly air masses and late-season cold snaps both occur. Seasonal snow cover, local urban effects, and broader climate trends all shape how warm a given March day can become.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which temperature bracket will be observed and will shift as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change. Use market signals alongside official meteorological products to form a view.
Settlement will use the official daily maximum temperature reported by the authoritative observation source specified in the contract; consult the KALSHI event page or contract text for the exact station, time zone, and measurement method used for this market.
The listing currently shows the closing time as TBD; the market will close at the time posted on the event page. The winning outcome is declared after the designated official source publishes the daily maximum and the platform completes its verification, typically within a few days of the observation—watch the event page for updates.
Deterministic forecasts become more reliable in the ~3–7 day window before the date, while ensemble and large-scale pattern guidance can provide useful signals 7–14 days out; high-resolution models and observations are most informative in the 72 hours leading up to the day.
Extensive snow cover raises surface albedo and encourages cold near-surface conditions, typically suppressing daytime warming and lowering maximum temperatures; conversely, bare ground permits stronger daytime heating—monitor local snow depth analyses in the days prior.
Watch NWS/NOAA surface observations and forecasts for the Minneapolis area, high-resolution model runs (and their ensembles) such as the HRRR, GFS, and ECMWF, satellite cloud analyses, snow-depth products, and local NWS briefings for the Twin Cities.