| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the single highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis will be on March 21, 2026; it matters for short‑term weather planning, energy demand, transportation, and how forecasters interpret fast-changing spring transitions.
Late March in Minneapolis sits in a transitional season with widely variable outcomes: one year can still see wintry conditions while another can have mild, springlike warmth. Day‑to‑day results are driven by the synoptic pattern (ridging vs troughing), timing of fronts, and local factors such as snow cover; long‑term climate trends have shifted baseline conditions upward but do not remove large daily variability.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of participants given current forecasts and available observations and will change as new model runs, observations, and news arrive; use them as a real‑time gauge of consensus rather than a guarantee.
Settlement will use the single highest official air temperature reported for the contract‑specified Minneapolis reporting station during the local calendar day on March 21, 2026, as defined by the exchange's contract rules and the designated official data source.
The market will use the specific station and observing network named in the contract (typically an official NOAA/NWS automated surface observing system or cooperative station for the Minneapolis area); the exchange's market description lists the exact station and source used for settlement.
This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes corresponding to temperature ranges (bins) defined in the contract; once the official highest temperature is determined it will fall into exactly one bin and that outcome will settle as the winner.
Yes—any official observation within the contract's defined local calendar day window for March 21 counts toward the highest temperature regardless of time of day; verify the exact start/end times in the market terms.
Extensive snow cover and active snowfall tend to limit daytime warming by reflecting solar radiation and maintaining cold surface temperatures, making lower maximum temperatures more likely compared with snow‑free conditions; the timing of melt or clearing also matters because a rapid loss of snowpack can allow stronger daytime warming.