| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 20, 2026. It matters for traders and anyone monitoring short‑term weather risk or late‑season temperature variability in the Twin Cities.
Late March in Minneapolis is a transitional period with large day‑to‑day swings driven by the position of the jet stream and incoming air masses; some years see unseasonable warmth while others remain wintry. Historical variability is high at this time of year, so synoptic setup and local conditions both strongly influence the day’s maximum temperature.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants given available forecasts and observations and will update as new model runs and real‑time measurements arrive. Use the market as a real‑time synthesis of information, not a fixed forecast.
The exact station and data source are specified in the market’s resolution text; participants should consult the market rules to see which National Weather Service or other official reporting station will be used for settlement.
The market uses the 24‑hour calendar date defined in the event’s rules, typically from 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the specified observation site; check the event details for any deviation from that convention.
Settlement relies on the highest value reported by the official observing network and instrument protocol named in the market rules—commonly the highest recorded air temperature in the station’s standard observations or daily summary.
The market’s contingency and dispute procedures govern such cases; they typically specify an alternate official source or the use of the final revised dataset from the named agency—review the event’s resolution policy for specifics.
Watch short‑range model ensembles, frontal timing, airport and regional temperature trends, snow‑cover maps, and official NWS updates (including forecasts, advisories, and discussion products) for information that will materially affect the day’s maximum.