| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 37° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the highest official air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 2, 2026. Accurate short-term temperature forecasts matter for travel, energy demand, and localized weather risk planning.
Early March in Minneapolis is a transitional period from winter to spring, so forecasts can swing between winterlike cold and sudden warm spells depending on large-scale patterns. Year-to-year variability is large because of shifts in the jet stream, snow cover, and synoptic systems. Long-term warming trends raise the baseline but day-to-day outcomes still depend primarily on immediate weather patterns.
Market odds reflect the collective information and expectations of traders and update as new model runs and observations arrive. Outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature categories defined on the event page and will be settled using the official observing station and measurement method specified in the contract rules.
The contract's rules specify the official observing station used for settlement; consult the event page or contract documentation for the exact station (for example, the designated NOAA/NWS or cooperative station serving Minneapolis).
Settlement typically uses the calendar day defined in the contract (local civil date), with the highest recorded air temperature during that local date at the official station; check the event page for the contract's time-standard and any UTC/local clarifications.
Official maxima are normally based on the highest air temperature measured by a standardized thermometer or automated sensor in a proper shelter at the official station (standard exposure and height), not surface pavement readings; the contract will reference those measurement conventions.
If the primary observing station has missing or invalid data, the market's settlement rules will specify fallback procedures or alternative data sources and adjudication methods; review the contract rules for the exact backup process.
Short‑range numerical weather prediction (e.g., high‑resolution and ensemble model runs), latest surface observations and radar, snow‑cover analyses, and NWS/local forecast discussion updates are the most relevant sources to assess the likely daily maximum for March 2, 2026.