| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 19, 2026 will be; it matters for traders and observers who want to express views on short‑term weather variability and potential weather impacts in the Twin Cities.
Mid‑March in Minneapolis is a transitional period with historically high day‑to‑day variability: outcomes can range from late winter cold to notably warm spring days depending on synoptic patterns. Large‑scale drivers such as the position of the jet stream, Arctic air masses, or incoming warm advection determine the day's potential. This market resolves to a single observed daily maximum and reflects real‑time forecasting, surface conditions, and observation practices on that calendar date.
Market odds indicate the collective view about which temperature range is most likely to be the recorded daily maximum; they combine forecast model guidance, recent observations, and trader information. Treat odds as relative signals that can change as forecasts and surface conditions evolve.
Most weather markets use the local calendar day for the named location (00:00 to 23:59 local time in Minneapolis, i.e., Central Time); confirm the event's rules for the precise settlement window.
The event's settlement rules specify the official source. Commonly used sources are National Weather Service observations from the official Minneapolis station (e.g., the MSP airport) or the NWS/NCEI daily climate summary; check the event page for the exact authoritative dataset.
Boundary inclusivity and tie procedures are defined in the market's settlement rules—intervals may be left‑ or right‑inclusive, or ties may use the rounded observation specified in the rules. Review the event's resolution section to see how exact values are classified.
Fallback procedures are described in the event's terms; typical options include using the nearest reliable NWS station, alternative hourly observation networks, or an official preliminary dataset from a national archive. Check the event rules to see the specified contingency plan.
Use short‑range numerical weather prediction updates and recent surface observations to capture evolving conditions (front timing, cloud cover, snowpack), and place them in the context of typical mid‑March variability in Minneapolis; monitor late model runs and surface observations on the morning of Mar 19, as they often produce the largest revisions to the expected daily maximum.