| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest official air temperature observed in Minneapolis on March 18, 2026. It matters for people and businesses exposed to short-term weather risk and for observers tracking seasonal temperature swings.
Mid-March in Minneapolis is a transitional period when Arctic air masses, spring warm-ups, and strong frontal passages can all occur, so daily highs can vary widely from year to year. Synoptic-scale pattern, snow cover, and timing of clouds or precipitation are common drivers of unusually warm or cold readings on a particular date. Local measurement practices and the exact observation site also shape the reported value.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which outcome will be observed and update as forecasts and observations change; they are signals about relative likelihoods, not guarantees. Always check the market contract for exact resolution rules before trading.
The contract's resolution rules define the measured quantity; typically it is the maximum official air temperature recorded at the designated observation site during the local calendar day. Consult the market page on KALSHI to confirm the precise definition and any averaging or sampling specifics.
The market contract on KALSHI specifies the official data source or station (for example, a National Weather Service station or a designated airport observation site). Check the contract details to see exactly which station or dataset will be used for resolution.
This market lists its close and resolution timeline on the KALSHI contract page; if 'Closes: TBD' is shown, follow the market posting for updates. Resolution generally occurs after the official daily observations are published by the designated data provider and any specified confirmation window has passed.
Short‑range forecasts (0–48 hours), radar and satellite trends, and current surface observations are most informative for same‑day temperature expectations because they capture the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and mesoscale phenomena that determine the daily maximum.
Whether a temperature that occurs after midnight counts for March 18 depends on the market's local-day definition and the observation window in the contract; verify the contract's time zone and daily boundaries on KALSHI to see how late‑night or early‑morning readings are assigned.