| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 19° to 20° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21° to 22° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Minneapolis will be on March 17, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because single-day temperature extremes can affect energy demand, travel, and local operations.
Minneapolis sits in a continental climate zone where March can still see large swings from late-winter cold to early-spring warmth; day-to-day outcomes depend on the position of large-scale weather systems and local conditions. Seasonal trends (including long-term warming) change baseline odds for warm vs. cold outcomes, but individual-day weather is dominated by synoptic and mesoscale dynamics.
Market prices aggregate participants' information about how weather models, observations, and local effects combine to produce that day's maximum temperature; treat prices as an up-to-date consensus view that will change as new forecasts and observations arrive.
Settlement will follow the observation source specified in the contract terms; that is typically an official National Weather Service/NOAA surface observing station serving Minneapolis, but you should consult the event rules to confirm the named station.
It is defined by the contract as the maximum air temperature recorded at the specified official station during the contract's defined observation window for March 17, 2026 (see the event page for the exact time window and unit of measurement).
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive labels on the market representing discrete temperature bins or exact values listed on the event page; at settlement the single outcome whose label matches the official observed maximum temperature (per the contract rules) will be declared the winner.
'Closes: TBD' indicates the market has not announced a final trade cutoff yet; resolution will occur after the official observation is available and any defined quality-control period has passed—check the event page and contract terms for the settlement timeline once it is posted.
The contract specifies fallback procedures or alternate data sources (for example, nearby official stations or a resolving authority) and whether post-event revisions affect settlement; consult the event's settlement rules for the exact procedures.