| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 15, 2026 will be; it matters because single‑day temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and weather‑sensitive operations.
March in Minneapolis is a transitional month with large day‑to‑day swings driven by shifting storm tracks and Arctic air intrusions. While long‑term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures over decades, the realized maximum on a particular date is governed mainly by short‑term synoptic weather patterns and local conditions.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about the official daily maximum reported by the designated Minneapolis observing station; interpret them as a realtime consensus signal, not a guaranteed forecast.
The event uses the highest official air temperature observed at the market's designated Minneapolis climate observation site during the local calendar day of March 15, 2026, as reported by the authorized data provider.
Settlement will follow the observing station specified in the market rules (typically the official National Weather Service station serving Minneapolis–Saint Paul) and uses local time for the calendar day; consult the market's settlement documentation for the exact station name.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the exchange will announce the trading cutoff. The final result is published after the official daily observations are released and the exchange completes its settlement checks.
Use historical variability and recent seasonal trends to frame expectations—mid‑March in Minneapolis can range from late‑winter cold to early‑spring warmth. Combine climatology with current model guidance and recent local conditions rather than relying on a single historical value.
Short‑ and medium‑range numerical weather prediction model runs, National Weather Service forecasts and surface analyses, satellite and radar for cloud cover and storm timing, and snowpack/soil reports are most useful; for settlement, rely on the official station's published daily summary.