| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Minneapolis on March 14, 2026 will be and lets traders take positions based on expectations for that day's peak. It matters for weather-sensitive businesses, risk management, and for observing short-term climate variability in a transitional month.
Minneapolis in mid‑March is meteorologically transitional: the city can still experience late‑winter cold or springlike warmth depending on large‑scale weather patterns. Synoptic features such as the position of the jet stream and timing of frontal passages, plus local factors like snow cover and urban effects, determine day‑to‑day outcomes; longer‑term climate trends can shift the baseline but do not eliminate day‑to‑day volatility.
Market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs about which temperature outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change; they represent relative confidence and are not a deterministic forecast for the single observed value.
Settlement uses the official observing station specified in the contract; the event rules will name the authoritative station or network (for example, a National Weather Service-designated site) — consult the event's settlement rules to see the exact station used.
It is the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the specified official station, measured by standard meteorological instruments; the contract also specifies any rounding or reporting conventions used for settlement.
The event's contingency or missing-data rules apply: common procedures include using a nearby official station, relying on a quality-controlled substitute dataset, or following arbitration procedures described in the contract — check the event rules for the precise fallback.
Snow cover increases surface albedo and requires energy for melt, both of which tend to suppress daytime warming; conversely, bare ground and recent melt allow faster heating under sunshine, so snow conditions are a key local modifier of peak temperatures.
The platform will display the market close time on the event page (it is currently listed as TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official observations for the calendar day are published by the designated authority, and the event rules will state the expected settlement timeline.